Just had a few beers, dinner and a great conversation with an old friend. We talked about the future and what we thought it held. As we discussed the possible outcomes it was clear that we didn’t agree. Regardless we both thought it was going to be very interesting.

Why do I share this story? Well I figure my version of the future is going to come to pass. You see I believe that I can read the tea leaves.

How have I come to have this wonderful ability?  Well I have spent the last 7 years studying human behaviour. Am I an expert? No, just a hack.

I have read many research articles, journals and books. I have spent countless hours engaged in discussions about my findings with the practitioners, gurus, professors and sceptics. My studies of human behaviour tells me that you can objectively observe what is happening today and then use that data to predict, with a high degree of certainty, what will occur in the future.

The research shows that our behaviour is conditioned by our learning history, or the consequences to which we have been repeatedly exposed and the environment. Put another way, past behaviour is the best predictor of future behaviour.

His argument was that the management team is doing something different and thereby changing the environment. My observation, they are messing around in the green zone, haven’t got any where near The Action and are more interested in their political masters than the performance occurring down in The Action. The term for this type of person I believe is a bureaucrat.

These bureaucrats busy themselves with operational detail and therefore can’t possibility be acting in a strategic manner.  To be strategic you need to create some relaxed room in your head for critical thinking and application of Socratic questioning  to verify that you have a robust strategy.

Over dinner I made an observation that people in The Action believe this or that. He says nothing could be further from the truth. My question back to him is, “Who are your eyes and ears inside The Action? How do you get a true read on what they are thinking? Or what they perceive as reality?” He says this doesn’t matter.

I disagree; folks in The Action are great observers of these green zone bureaucrats. They listen to what the bureaucrats say and the watch what they do. The practitioners take this evidence, compare it to their history with these bureaucrats and draw conclusions about what the future will hold.

The green zone has taken it’s eye off the goal of creating an environment that will encourage high performance. The life in this lush green zone involves sun flowering to the political masters.

The practitioners find themselves enveloped in fog and sensing an impending storm they batten down the hatches. The bureaucrats look down upon this group and see non performance. They pass judgement, offer up a new prescription to cure the ills and everyone finds themselves in a self fulfilling prophecy of inevitable reorganisation.

So back to my original point…I can predict the future and the future is rosy right up until the point at which the truth can no longer be casually brushed aside with a dismissive scoff of “you don’t understand”.

Can the future be changed? Yes.

Is it going to be easy? No.

You can’t just take a pill, you have to eat less and exercise more if this is going to work.